Entendendo análise fundamentalista e o impacto de indicadores econômicos.
Open the Economic Calendar at fxpro.com and find news with two or three exclamation marks. These are publications of statistic data that have the strongest influence on the currencies of the related countries.
This means that approximately 15 minutes before the actual value of the indicator appears in the calendar, very strong unpredictable upward or downward movements can begin on the currency pair chart.
The main recommendation to novice traders – to focus on the difference between the actual value and the forecast. Also, should not forget that there may be a quick price reversal, and therefore news trading implies to open quick deals (positions).
More often, you will follow the US news (they are most understandable for beginners) and the focus of your attention will be on the dollar – USD. If the American statistics turns out to be good (better than analysts' forecasts), then get ready that the EURUSD chart can go down: yes, the dollar rate, in this case, will increase but pay attention that it stands second in the pair. Accordingly, the price of the euro in dollars will fall.
If it is easier for you to open clear deals, choose the USDJPY chart: the dollar is first there, and the Japan markets (JPY) are already closed by this time.
If the released data will affect the growth of the dollar value, the pair chart will grow up (the direct dependency).
Building permitsWhat is the essence: This report includes data on the total number of monthly building permits issued by the US government.
Why it should be followed: this indicator can give important clues about the future state of the economy. It makes this report a significant leading indicator for those traders who speculate on currency pairs with the US dollar.
When data is published: between the 17th and 18th of each month.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)What is the essence: CCI indicates how optimistic the population is with respect to the current and future economic situation. Consumers are sent a survey, related to their future purchases. The results make the CCI basis.
Why it should be followed: strong consumer confidence demonstrates that the standard of living is rising. That means people can afford to spend more. Moreover, it increases the national economy turnover, leads to national growth and empowers the national currency value.
When data is published: the last Tuesday of each month.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)What is the essence: This indicator shows how the cost of living has changed in a particular country: a number of consumer goods are being evaluated, including food and beverages, housing, transportation, and medical care. This data is often used to determine the inflation level.
Why it should be followed: This is one of the key lagging indicators. Based on this, traders can make predictions of potential interest rate changes and plan their trading accordingly.
When data is published: monthly.
Durable Goods OrdersWhat is the essence: The indicator measures the number of new resident orders for the production and supply of durable and large goods, such as engines.
Why it should be followed: This data demonstrates the rate of economic growth. The number of orders placed can give an idea of future factories workload. In turn, this affects directly both sales figures and employees' working hours.
When data is published: on the 20th of each month.
Labour Cost IndexWhat is the essence: This indicator fixes the wages level changes, as well as bonuses and working benefits for all non-agricultural sectors. Data for the report is collected on the basis of an employers survey.
Why it should be followed: the report is related to the inflation figures. Employee remuneration is one of the main company expenses. The US Federal Reserve is also monitoring this index closely and, to a large extent, relies on it while choosing the direction of the national economic policy.
When data is published: quarterly.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)What is the essence: this is a report that measures the total value of all goods and services, produced in a country during a year or a quarter. This publication can cause significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency: it is published not only in the United States but also in other countries (Canada, Great Britain, Japan, etc).
Why it should be followed: this is a great opportunity to compare the economic growth rates of different countries and make a forecast on the certain currency pair chart movement.
Número de novos marcadores de base Qual é a essência: O relatório mede o número de casas, entrou em construção no mês anterior.
Por que deve ser seguido: o indicador está diretamente relacionado à taxa de crescimento econômico. Por exemplo, a redução contínua no número de projetos de construção nos EUA pode indicar uma recessão iminente. Ao mesmo tempo, um aumento na atividade pode indicar um período positivo na economia do país. Isso também afeta a taxa do dólar (USD).
Quando os dados são publicados: por volta do 17º dia de cada mês.
Mudanças na produção industrial Qual é a essência: Mostra quanto de mercadorias são produzidas no país durante o mês. Em geral, nos cálculos estão envolvidos os resultados financeiros de empresas industriais, fábricas, empresas de mineração e energia.
Por que deve ser seguido: considerado como um indicador coincidente. Isso significa que quaisquer mudanças que este relatório capte estão acontecendo na economia agora. A publicação indica em quais setores o crescimento é observado: nesse sentido, é possível determinar a tendência atual em moeda nacional. O indicador, antecipadamente, reflete as mudanças no nível nacional de emprego, renda média, renda pessoal e inflação.
Quando os dados são publicados: 11-12 de cada mês.